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    我國汽車零部件行業問題及發展趨勢分析

          各車系零部件采用情況 

          伴隨著我國成為全球汽車產銷第一大國,汽車零部件行業也在發展壯大,從世界格局來看,我國零部件行業無論是橫向規模發展還是縱向技術升級都具有廣闊的發展空間。但是本土零部件產業格局呈弱、小、散的狀態,雖然產業規模較大,但是缺乏規模效應,且關鍵零部件領域幾乎全被外資占據,行業競爭力主要體現在廉價勞動力及資源成本。在汽車零部件全球采購的背景下,具有技術和研發優勢及規模優勢的本土零部件企業將會有較大的發展空間。 

          行業運行現狀 

          從2010年1—10月份運行情況看,汽車零部件行業利潤總額仍在增長,但增速放緩;進出口額也雙雙增長,但進口產品以變速箱及發動機零件等高利潤、高附加值、高科技的產品為主,出口產品以輪胎、電子儀器儀表等進入壁壘低、利潤薄的勞動密集型和資源消耗型為主。 

          下游整車行業目前產能過剩,雖然2010年在國家的各項刺激政策下出現了非常規的高速增長,但2011年產銷增速放緩、產能過剩壓力加大,受其影響,零部件行業下半年可能會承受較大利潤的壓力。

          行業面臨的主要問題 

          上下游兩頭受擠,行業面臨雙重壓力

          零部件行業是兩頭受擠的行業,對上下游缺乏議價能力。上游原材料主要是鋼材、橡膠、塑料、織物等,其價格最終由鋼鐵、石油、天然橡膠等大宗商品價格決定,汽車零部件企業只能通過對上游商品價格走勢的判斷規避風險。同時,下游整車制造商多為大企業大集團,在與零部件廠商的利益博弈中處于強勢地位,談判能力強,能將成本壓力轉嫁給汽車零部件行業,因此,零部件實際上處于兩頭受擠的“三明治”夾心地位。 

           產業規模大,但缺乏規模效應 

           汽車工程學會統計數據顯示,中國零部件產業產值已經超過1.2萬億,產業規模大,但目前從事該行業的企業有2萬多家,平均每家企業產值僅為0.6億元左右,資金不足、生產規模小、實力弱,缺乏規模效應。以全球汽車零部件行業龍頭博世為例,2010年銷售收入近500億美元,而我國最大的零部件企業萬向集團銷售收入僅為33億美元。核心部件研發能力弱,本土競爭力主要體現在勞動密集型及資源消耗型產品中國汽車零部件產業的競爭力主要體現在廉價勞動力成本及資源成本,不掌握高端產品技術且缺乏研發能力。2009年汽車工程學會對零部件行業的調查顯示,我國汽車零部件企業研發投入目前只占銷售收入的1.4%,遠低于跨國公司5%的平均水平。   

          核心零部件研發能力弱是阻礙該行業發展的軟肋,目前自動變速箱、ABS、安全氣囊等產品仍然是國內空白,在全球汽車產業的垂直化分工體系中處于價值鏈低端,少數高技術含量產品雖然具備了一定的研發能力,但是質量穩定性無法保證,仍無法進行商業應用。 

          國產零部件主要用于自主品牌汽車,市場占有率低

    商務部的數據顯示,外資控制了汽車零部件的絕大部分市場份額,國產零部件銷售收入僅占全行業的20%—25%,擁有外資背景的汽車零部件廠商占整個行業的75%以上,在這些外資供應商中,獨資企業占55%,中外合資企業占45%,本土零部件主要應用于自主品牌汽車,市場占有率低。在汽車電子和發動機零部件等高科技含量領域,外資市場份額高達90%,其中,汽車的電噴系統、發動機管理系統、ABS和安全氣囊、自動變速器等核心零部件的產量中,外資企業所占比例分別是100%、100%和91%、69%。 

          國際貿易形勢日趨嚴峻

          自中國加入世貿組織以來,汽車零部件開始大量進入國際市場,我國汽車零部件產品在海外盡管物美價廉,但是由于核心競爭力缺失,產品替代性強,因此屢屢被以各種貿易保護主義方式拒之門外,從緊固件到汽車輪胎、輪轂等,中國汽車零部件出口遭遇的貿易摩擦從未間斷過。  

          行業發展趨勢 

          在汽車零部件全球采購的背景下,我國本土零部件企業面臨著高端產品無競爭力、低端產品勞動力成本趨高的雙重壓力,未來那些具備技術優勢和規模優勢,樹立良好品牌的企業將獲得較大的發展空間。通過海外并購獲得技術以及與大的汽車集團具有血緣關系的企業將實現快速發展。 

          中國零部件企業做大做強的根本之策是提高研發及技術水平,進行產業鏈地位升級,才能有效突破行業瓶頸,實現快速發展。但是目前中國的零部件制造企業落后國際先進水平至少十年,要想在人才及技術缺乏的情況下短期內實現飛躍發展的便捷之路是借助資本的力量。因此,未來有兩類企業將實現快速發展,一類是通過海外并購獲得技術的企業,如近期北京太平洋世紀收購美國通用汽車Nextee轉向系統、濰柴動力收購法國引擎制造商 MoteursBaudouin等。另外一類是與大的汽車集團有血緣關系,借助集團實力實現規模化經營的企業。2009年出臺的汽車產業調整振興規劃也明確表示整車行業將通過兼并重組,使產銷規模占市場份額90%以上的汽車企業集團整合到10家以內,這種趨勢將傳導給零部件企業,依托大的汽車集團的零部件廠商將實現快速發展。 

          系統及模塊供應商和品牌、技術制造者將在競爭中脫穎而出。 

          國際汽車零部件行業格局呈金字塔形,塔尖是系統供應商,塔身是模塊供應商,底座是零件供應商,相應利潤分配從高到低,中國的汽車零部件行業整體處于塔底位置,利潤率低,生存受壓。因此,那些積極向上端進行業務拓展,向模塊供應商或系統供應商邁進的零部件企業,或者在零部件領域專注于實現技術升級或樹立品牌的廠商會在競爭中脫穎而出。 

    上一篇:大數據透視:2014年中國汽車行業市場業績分析
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